Darrell Issa's decision not to run again in the 49th district looks pretty good for the Republicans. Issa was a vulnerable incumbent (he won by less than a point in 2016). Democrats hated him with the passion of a thousand burning suns. He had a high net disapproval rating in the district. It was all bad.
Now, he's moved aside to make room for new fresh faces.
Rocky Chavez announced first to replace Issa and is the current Republican front-runner; he's also a close second to long suffering Dem Doug Applegate in both the recent SurveyUSA and FM3 polls. Rocky is an inspired choice. He's a retired Marine Colonel with a 28 year career in the Corps under his belt. He started a charter school (I mean, wow, he started a freaking SCHOOL). He served on the Oceanside City Council and then stepped up as Acting Secretary of the California Department of Veterans Affairs. Then he won the 76th district seat for State Assembly. The guy has a great resume.
If the Republicans can find one other good candidate to run alongside Chavez, they stand a chance of shutting out the Democrats in June (see CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD: BLUE EDITION, the previous post in this blog).
Candidates for the big spoiler role include Diane Harkey and Kristin Gaspar.
The political blog Orange Juice calls Diane Harkey "Dirty Diane Harkey", a nickname I'm happy to adopt. Dirty Diane is running a decently close second to Rocky in the two recent real polls.
Dirty Diane has all sorts of problems.
Yes, she has government experience at the State Board of Equalization and the State Assembly before that. Yes, she has a long career in banking and financial services. Yes, Issa strongly endorsed her (what was he thinking?!).
But the Board of Equalization is pretty much a laughing stock. The Governor and state legislature stripped it of most of its power and responsibilities after multiple scandals including corruption and misplacing $350 million (how do you do that exactly?). Oh, and her husband has been in all kinds of trouble. Like criminal trouble. I'll let the Orange Juice political blog fill in the details:
A quick primer on Dirty Diane Harkey
Yuck - Something is rotten in Harkey-ville
As for the scandal that led the Governor to take action:
Governor Strips Powers From Corrupt Board of Equalization
State Board of Equalization is a Mess
Dirty Diane doesn't look like a great #2 to Chavez in the Great Race to Lock Out the Dems. She's running a smart digital campaign - whenever I type in a topic to Google for my own research, it seems like Google AdWords surfaces an ad for Harkey's campaign. So she's always on my mind (cue the music). But she's icky. I can't believe she's going to be the #2 that knocks out the hapless Dems. I wish she wasn't always on my mind.
So... who is riding to the rescue? Not TrumpBot Brian Maryott or "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" patent attorney Joshua Schoonover (two of the five Republican candidates both polling in the low single digits).
The answer is Kristin Gaspar.
Ahhhh. Kristin Gaspar. A moderate Republican who won elected office as city councilwoman and then mayor in blue, blue Encinitas, showing she can attract cross-over voters. A politician with a career on rails, thanks to her election to the San Diego Board of Supervisors where she actually took out a Democratic incumbent in 2016 (Dave Roberts). A powerhouse centrist with a seriously high voltage campaign adviser (yes, looking at you Jason Roe).
It's like a golden god-ray from heaven broke through troubled storm clouds and lit up Kristin Gaspar with an exalted golden glow. Hallelujah.
Not so fast. Gaspar barely eked out a victory against Roberts in 2016 and he was plagued by a truly nasty scandal that brought him low. And Kristin has problems of her own. She and her husband created a sham charity ("We Love Encinitas") back in her city council days. She's taken hundreds of thousands of dollars from questionable donors. There is an endlessly circulating video loop of her proudly announcing her vote and support for Trump in the 2016 primary. And... she is very, very impressed with herself. She used to run her city council meetings like a kindergarten class where she could arrogantly boss around the other council members (inspiring the nickname "Mean Girl" because she's just so much like a... mean girl).
She's not perfect.
But she might be enough. Especially if the Dems all grievously wound each other in the primary.
The scenario that may haunt the Republicans is one where Dirty Diane and Mean Girl Kristin decide they are both in it to win it and beat each other bloody. Or even worse, Dirty Diane and the Mean Girl could team up and beat the snot out of Rocky. That could leave an opportunity even the fratricidal Democrats might be able to capitalize on.
So, the coast in't entirely clear, even in red country.
As much as we might all dream of a three way mud-wrestling match between Rocky, Dirty Diane, and the Mean Girl, that's probably wishful thinking. By my reckoning, the real stakes for the Republicans in the primary race are locking out the Democrats. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Rocky isn't on the ballot in November. The question is whether or not the Republicans can get Dirty Diane or the Mean Girl into the #2 spot.
All things considered, this is a pretty good dilemma to be worrying about for those with (R) next to their names.
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